Backgammon - True Probabilities!
By: RALF GUVEN - EURO-BETS.com
When you read other articles about probabilities you will notice an approach of accepting "2+1" and "1+2" as two different possibilities! But I don't, these two results are the same. It's only a situation when one dice comes "1" and the other "2". But I consider them like values to play "1 and 2" or "3" which also mean two possibilities, but in a different way. This is important when you consider "5+4" as "5 and 4" or "9"; also double6 as "12" or "18" or "24"!
So when you are obliged to leave a blot (a single or weak checker) try to avoid positions attainable by 6, then 4, then 5 and 3. Check the followings to find out why!
Double numbers: 6
1 & 1 means 4 times 1; or 1, 2, 3, 4
2 & 2 means 4 times 2; or 2, 4, 6, 8
3 & 3 means 4 times 3; or 3, 6, 9, 12
4 & 4 means 4 times 4; or 4, 8, 12, 16
5 & 5 means 4 times 5; or 5, 10, 15, 20
6 & 6 means 4 times 6; or 6, 12, 18, 24
Possible combinations: 30
1 + 2 = 1, 2, or 3
1 + 3 = 1, 3, or 4
1 + 4 = 1, 4, or 5
2 + 3 = 2, 3, or 5
1 + 5 = 1, 5, or 6
2 + 4 = 2, 4, or 6
1 + 6 = 1, 6, or 7
2 + 5 = 2, 5, or 7
3 + 4 = 3, 4, or 7
2 + 6 = 2, 6, or 8
3 + 5 = 3, 5, or 8
3 + 6 = 3, 6, or 9
4 + 5 = 4, 5, or 9
4 + 6 = 4, 6, or 10
5 + 6 = 5, 6, or 11
Probability of numbers that you may get in 100 rolls:
1 = 9 times
2 = 10 times
3 = 11 times
4 = 12 times
5 = 11 times
6 = 13 times
7 = 03 times
8 = 04 times
9 = 03 times
10 = 02 times
11 = 01 time
12 = 03 times
15 = 01 time
16 = 01 time
18 = 01 time
20 = 01 time
24 = 01 time
Percentage (in 100 rolls):
% 10.35 for "1"
% 11.49 for "2"
% 12.64 for "3"
% 13.79 for "4"
% 12.64 for "5"
% 14.94 for "6"
% 03.45 for "7"
% 04.60 for "8"
% 03.45 for "9"
% 02.30 for "10"
% 01.15 for "11"
% 03.45 for "12" and
% 01.15 for "15","16","18","20" and "24"
About the Author:
Ralf Guven is the founder partner of Vitalinfocenter.com since 2000 and an expert of Backgammon. To find out more tips, tricks, strategies and information on how to play better backgammon visit Backgammon Tips.
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