13 NFL team stats that predict future point spread outcomes.
By: DENNIS ARTHUR - EURO-BETS.com
When it comes to handicapping the NFL versus the point spread, there are a number of stats that I have found to be extremely effective in revealing profitable trends versus the line. The top 13 of these are listed below.
ROF, RDE, POF, PDE
Roughly 65-70% of the trends that I track each season involve at least one, if not two, of these fundamental ratings, which are based on yards-per-play stats, adjusted for the corresponding strength of opponents faced.
As an example: a teams ROF (rush offense rating) is calculated by taking the average yards-per-rush on offense, minus the total average of rush defenses faced season-to-date.
More specifically, a team with an average of 4.3 yards-per-rush on offense, that achieved this number while facing a group of opponents that normally give up 3.8 yards-per-rush on defense, will have an ROF rating of +0.50 (4.3 - 3.8).
Another example might be: teams that surrendered 5.0 yards-per-pass play against offenses that normally average 5.8 yards-per-pass play—their PDE rating would be +0.80 (5.8 - 5.0).
Plays such as QB kneel-downs and spiked balls are not included in pass rating calculations. Extremely long pass plays are capped at 60 yards while big runs are capped at 40 yards.
My research has shown that Yards-per-play measurements are the most effective way to analyze the results of individual rushing and passing plays, when working versus the point spread (by a surprisingly wide-margin, I might add).
TMI (Team Momentum Indicator)
TMI's are a specialized rating that I have been using since 1995 and were the sole basis for my handicapping selections from 1995-1999.
TMI's are similar to traditional 'Power Ratings' in the sense that they provide an assessment of team strength on both sides of the ball; however, there are a few important differences, the largest being, they focus predominantly on statistics from recent games and not the entire season. Points scored and allowed along with Yards-per-Pass and Points-per-Pass stats, both on offense and defense, are factored into TMI as well as a number of other variables.
Teams that have exhibited a balanced attack in recent games combined with a strong defense versus both the pass and run—which has translated into a positive point differential—will have a high TMI.
Teams that have fallen behind often in recent contests and have had to rely on a higher percentage of passing plays in order to catch-up, or have been taken advantage of defensively via long passing/rushing plays, will have a TMI < 0.
TMI's are a powerful tool when used in direct conjunction with the point spread and they are an important player in many of my more successful situational trends. This stat is exclusive to Armchair Analysis.com!
INTD, FUMD (INT and Fumble differential)
Did you know that, in over 75% of the games played since 1994, the team with a higher game turnover differential (INTF + FUMF - INTA - FUMA) is the same team that ended up covering the spread? Given this statistic, it's little wonder that interception and fumble differentials play an important part in many of the trends that I track.
When I talk about INTD and FUMD I am usually referencing a teams performance season-to-date, but, some of my trends do look at these stats from a teams most recent game as well.
Obviously, all turnovers are not created equal and this is why it is important to categorize interceptions and fumbles separately.
LS WP (Last Seasons Winning Percentage)
With-out question, point spreads are based as much on what a team has done in the distant past, as they are on more recent performances, and nothing quantifies this better than a teams winning percentage from the last season.
Amateur bettors have a hard time letting go of pre-conceived notions of team strength based on results from past seasons, and I have a number of effective trends that exploit this fact.
O/U (Over/Under)
Interestingly enough, I have found that a teams season average for O/U's and the O/U from their most recent game, are much more useful in handicapping a current line than the same 2 measurements of past point spreads.
In addition to past Over/Unders, current match-ups between two defensive minded teams (i.e., where the O/U is <= 37 points) offer up many profitable trends that would not be present if say, the O/U was 43 or 44.
Because of the wide range of uses for the Over/Under, you will find them included in some shape or form in quite a few of my situational trends.
CW & CL (Clutch Wins and Losses)
This is more of a 'situation' than a statistic, but, teams coming off a 'Clutch win' or 'Clutch loss' offer many opportunities for profit when other key factors are present.
A 'Clutch Win' can be defined as a situation where: a team tallies the final score of a game, in either the 4th quarter or overtime, moving them from a tied or losing position, into a winning one.
The team that loses in this situation would be assigned a 'Clutch' loss.
Many stats from a teams most recent game are powerful predictors of future spread results but these 2 rank up near the top.
TOP (Time of Possession)
While on the topic of useful stats from a teams previous game, it would be negligent of me to not mention Time of Possession in the same breath as Clutch wins and losses.
Stats such as total yards and time of possession are often a better indication of which team played better than the other simply because of the impact that turnovers, long returns, and other game-breaking factors can have on the final score of any given game.
While I predominantly look at a teams TOPF from their most recent game, season averages for TOPF also have their place in a few of my situational trends.
KRY (Kick-off Return Yardage)
Some might be surprised to see Kick-off Return Yardage make this list, but yes, the average length that a team returns Kick-offs for is a key stat that has proven to be very predictive of future point-spread success, when combined with other factors.
Whether a team covers the spread or not really comes down to the battle of field position and season KRY average is an excellent barometer of special teams skill in one of the more underrated, yet important plays in football.
Betting On The Sun Devils In California Is Risky Business!
It must be late in September as every year the same hype begins to circulate about the Arizona State Sun Devils. At least Jake ‘the Snake’ Plummer delivered the Grand Canyon State University to the Rose Bowl, but since then it has been slim pickings. A few years ago, Oakland Raiders quarterback Andrew Walter had the city in the Valley of the Sun pumped up as the team was undefeated heading to LA for a date with USC and they got waxed. That one almost made me want to stop sports betting…almost. This season, there was a major quarterback controversy between Sam Keller and. . .
Return to EURO BETS Gambling Articles Index
